Long range forecast

(Calgary, AB)

OK - I've looked at the long range 2-4 month forecast maps and probabilities but I still don't understand if Western Canada is going to have normal precipitation and warm temps or another drought? Interpretation please!

Barry's Response - I usually start with http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/saisons/image_e.html?img=mfe1t_s&title=forecasts it shows the forecast temperature anomaly over the next 30 days starting with the first or the 15th of the current month. You can only tell if they mean above, below or near normal, then the second plot shows the reliability of these forecasts as a percentage of the time these forecasts have been correct.

The next one I look at is the 90 day plots for the same temperature information: http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/saisons/image_e.html?img=sfe1t_s and then the 90-day for the precipitation http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/saisons/image_e.html?img=sfe1p_s

These include the current and next two months.

All temperature plots, as of March 2010, show it being unusually warm in all of BC and Alberta (except Medicine Hat) as well as Northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba over the months of March, April and May. For the same time period, all of BC, Alberta (except Medicine Hat), Saskatchewan and Manitoba are predicted to be unusually dry.

Medicine Hat should be near normal - which is, guess what, warm and dry (compared to the rest of this region).