Long range forecast

(Calgary, AB)

OK - I've looked at the long range 2-4 month forecast maps and probabilities but I still don't understand if Western Canada is going to have normal precipitation and warm temps or another drought? Interpretation please!

Barry's Response - I usually start with https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/image_e.html?img=mfe1t_s -- it shows the forecast temperature anomaly over the next 30 days starting on the most recent or upcoming Monday (It's updated on Thursdays). You can only tell if they mean above, below or near normal, then the second plot shows the reliability of these forecasts as a percentage of the time these forecasts have been correct.

The next one I look at is the 90 day plots for the same temperature information: https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/prob_e.html and then the 90-day forecast for the precipitation https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/image_e.html?img=s123pfe1p_cal&bc=prob

These include the current and next two months.

All temperature plots, as of March 2010, show it being unusually warm in all of BC and Alberta (except Medicine Hat) as well as Northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba over the months of March, April and May. For the same time period, all of BC, Alberta (except Medicine Hat), Saskatchewan and Manitoba are predicted to be unusually dry.

Medicine Hat should be near normal - which is, guess what, warm and dry (compared to the rest of this region).

2012 update - It turns out that that year, Medicine Hat had record precipitation and severe flooding in June. Takes a strong flood to permanently close a brick manufacturing facility.

Search this site for more information now.