*** 20th Anniversary: 2003 to 2023 ***

Modelling uncertainty and errors

by Barry



Here is what the EPA has to say about modelling uncertainty and errors. It incorporates some theory put forth by Carl Gauss:

Modeling software is more trustworthy for coming up with longer time-period concentrations than for calculating one-hour concentrations at precise locations.

The programs are okay for estimating highest concentrations that may take place anywhere in the domain. For example,
"...errors in highest estimated concentrations of ± 10 to 40 % are found to be typical (assuming appropriate inputs)."

Concentration calculations for an exact time and place correlate poorly with monitored concentrations (corresponding to the same time and space) and reliability is not as good.

Uncertainties fall into two categories:

1) Reducible - where plume locating errors arise from errors in wind direction in the meteorological data.

2) Unspecified uncertainties intrinsic to the atmosphere not incorporated into the model. These errors can be quite large, up to 50%, and are no indication that specific concentrations do not actually happen. These are examples of natural modelling uncertainty and errors. We just can't tell precisely where and when.

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Comments for Modelling uncertainty and errors

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not clear and bad written
by: Lorenzo

The article starts talking about Gauss and then it does not provide meaningful informations, it just cite a sentence and explain too shortly the concept.
At the end I didn't get a lot of the content, I would have liked to have more information on the subject and with a better introduction.

by: Anonymous

Why have a picture of gauss if your not going to really go into his math?

by: Anonymous

An interesting analysis. I'll have to look into it closer. thanks.

Looked good,
by: Diane

First impression of the page was that it looked good, and loaded fast, as for the content i did not understand any of it.

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